They simply don't know?

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Well, most likely.  I set out to find the probability of winning a computer mahjong game.  Mahjong?  A computerized form of a type of Chinese game (though the Japanese also play a version, and perhaps to other Orientals).  The game seems to be played by four players, but that game is translated to being played by one person against the computer.  The computer game version is a lot like klondike, the solitaire singular card game.  Finding no pages regarding probability relating to mahjong, I went in search of such for klondike, hoping there might be a connection in there somewhere.  Not so much.

As it turns out, even the number regarding klondike seem to be unavailable.  Assuming all knowledge (knowing where all the cards are), the failure rate is 8.5%.  The problem is, the game is played in such a way that knowing where all cards are is against the rules.  In such case, the suspected number of wins, assuming a player plays perfect games, but without knowledge, is 50%.  Still, that hasn't actually been figured out, from several sources I have read.  Basically the number crunchers can't or haven't figured this out.  Which... if I had to guess, means that they haven't figured out mahjong, which I think is probably trickier.  Though they might be closer.  Sometimes, when given the number of tiles, I am not sure if they are discussing the four person game or the electronic, or at least solo, game, which are very different.

I didn't say I could figure everything out in a snap.  Some things I will never figure out.  Talent, patience, time, and all else... including raw interest.  As of today, I have run out of interest on this topic.  It may or may not return.  If it returns, I may have to dig out a couple of math books on various subjects and begin crafting a solution, revising that, tuning it, finding a solution, checking that with others, or... not.  Can I?  I can certainly begin, and get where I get, as correctly or not as possible.  So, yes, and... well... maybe not.  Later.  Oh, as to the game, I only win about a third of the time.  Which, might or might not be good.  I might be able to base some of my work on how they set up the numbers regarding klondike, just changing them a bit.  But if they couldn't figure out klondike, then I may well not be able to figure out mahjong.  But, if I can find a base probability for 'with knowledge' percent solvable (8.5% unsolvable for klondike, with knowledge), and 'expected outcome' (about 50%, by general observation of good players), I might find some similar sort of ratio, or expected possible ratio of win to loss.  Lot of dang work to just have a best guess solution, and to probably guess that my percentage wins are probably as good as it gets.  But I'm just dying anyway.  As we all are, if at various speeds with dissimilar proximity to death, if also with absolutely no guarantee that any of that means a thing on a one on one comparison basis, only that, at some point, everyone dies.  I think?  :p

Is your mind good and numb?  Good, good.  Wait until I wake up, if I ever fully wake up again.  Just understand, the best thinkers are... usually just wrong in a more profound manner.  Don't let a single one of them fool you for an instant.  But don't, also, completely reject... unless you are sure enough to become one of them.  Bleh.  Later!